http://www.goldmedia.com/ Goldmedia: Strategies for E-Merging Media Strategies de http://www.goldmedia.com/typo3conf/ext/tt_news/ext_icon.gif http://www.goldmedia.com/ 18 16 Goldmedia: Strategies for E-Merging Media Strategies TYPO3 - get.content.right http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Wed, 25 Aug 2010 08:00:00 +0200 http://www.goldmedia.com/en/press/newsroom/online-radio-monitor-2010.html New online radio report published by BLM and Goldmedia. 40 percent increase in online radio services in Germany compared to 2009. 4/5 broadcast exclusively online, 1/5 live streams from FM radio stations. Difference in use: FM radio listened to in the morning, online radio in the evening. 44... Press Release Radio General Wed, 25 Aug 2010 08:00:00 +0200 http://www.goldmedia.com/en/news/info/article/hybrid-tv.html Berlin, 30 June 2010. The internet is becoming a standard feature of modern TV sets. Around a fifth of all TV sets sold in Germany will be networked with the World Wide Web at the end of 2010. Goldmedia forecasts around 23 million internet-capable TV sets in German living rooms by 2015,... internet is becoming a standard feature of modern TV sets. Around a fifth of all TV sets sold in Germany will be networked with the World Wide Web at the end of 2010. Goldmedia forecasts around 23 million internet-capable TV sets in German living rooms by 2015, representing 61 percent of all TV households. Goldmedia also predicts that the share of regular internet-on-TV users will increase to 58 percent by 2015. Extrapolated to all German TV households, this means that every third household will regularly view Internet TV content via the TV set by 2015. The advent of internet on the TV hasn’t just broadened users’ possibilities. As various hybrid TV concepts and converged devices are introduced, many new and influential providers are pushing their way into the living room. TV and consumer electronics manufacturers have suddenly found themselves in an intense competition with global players from the online and computer industries. It’s not just Microsoft, Apple, Yahoo, and now Google TV that attest to the struggle in the IT world for establishment in the networked home and on the living room TV. These companies must also compete against game console providers, whose entire, current generation of devices is online capable, offering users much more than online gaming. Via a browser, game console users can surf the internet or access movies on their platform’s video-on-demand store. Key Findings • 23 million hybrid TV sets in German households
• One in three TV homes will have access to television on the web by 2015
• New providers compete with established players for the central position in the living room For more information read the German press release]]> General Thu, 01 Jul 2010 17:46:00 +0200 http://www.goldmedia.com/en/press/newsroom/study-betting-and-gambling-in-germany.html New published study by Berlin consultancy Goldmedia shows: The German state is losing control over the gambling market, The German gambling market is increasingly dominated by foreign companies, State-run gambling providers are experiencing massive revenue declines Press Release Thu, 17 Jun 2010 08:17:00 +0200 http://www.goldmedia.com/en/news/info/article/study-on-the-german-gambling-market.html Since 2008, when Germany's State Treaty on Gambling was approved to reduce gambling addiction, online gambling through private providers has been prohibited and advertising of gambling services banned. The treaty mandates that most forms of gambling be done through state-owned monopolies. Along a... Germany's State Treaty on Gambling was approved to reduce gambling addiction, online gambling through private providers has been prohibited and advertising of gambling services banned. The treaty mandates that most forms of gambling be done through state-owned monopolies. Along a broad spectrum of regulatory policies in Europe, Germany falls into the category of an extremely restrictive regulatory model.   Contents of the study "Betting & Gambling Germany 2015"

• Analysis of the German gambling market with reference to the lotto, casino, online gambling machine, poker, and betting sectors, both before and after the approval of Germany’s State Treaty in 2008
• Forecasts up to 2015
• The study investigates the regulated and unregulated markets for gambling in Germany in depth
• Online companies, including those located outside of Germany, are analysed, and their contributions to wager revenue and gross gaming revenues
• Goldmedia’s study is the first to analyse the German gambling market comprehensively
• The study is tying in with the previous, 2006 study entitled “Online Betting & Gambling 2010”
  
  

Study authors: Dr. Michael Schmid, Solveig Boernsen Pricing and Ordering 130 pages, 112 charts
available only in German Standard version (printed version): 1,250.00 Euro excl. VAT
Corporate version (pdf by e-mail): 1,950.00 Euro excl. VAT Please use our order sheet or contact Dr. Katrin Penzel via e-mail for further questions: Katrin.Penzel(at)Goldmedia.de The Key Facts of the study (12 pages, without market forecast) are available in English and German and are provided free of charge by Goldmedia.
Order Click here for more information on the study]]> Report Internet Wed, 16 Jun 2010 16:34:00 +0200 http://www.goldmedia.com/en/news/info/article/film-forecasting-test-for-success-before-production-begins.html Film forecasting reduces risk and informs investment decisionsGOLDMEDIA’s film forecasting model calculates viewer numbers for German films before production beginsGOLDMEDIA film forecasting is based on a comprehensive database and uses artificial intelligence methodsTests have a forecast accuracy...

Film forecasting reduces risk and informs investment decisions

GOLDMEDIA’s film forecasting model calculates viewer numbers for German films before production begins

GOLDMEDIA film forecasting is based on a comprehensive database and uses artificial intelligence methods

Tests have a forecast accuracy of 80 percent

Berlin, March 23, 2010. At the beginning it’s just the script. For it to become a film, investors must be brought onboard. But the idea alone does not provide security for a multi-million-euro film investment.

Scientific methods are increasingly used in the film industry to get reliable forecasts on viewer numbers even before production begins. Film-forecasting analyses can help to reduce risk for all parties and provide sound support for investment decisions. Berlin consulting company GOLDMEDIA has developed a film forecasting model specifically for the German movie market, which has been used to test various film projects for over three years.

A huge number of factors can explain a film’s success or lack thereof. But these factors are by no means linearly related to success, and their interrelations are complex. GOLDMEDIA’s forecasting model uses methods of artificial intelligence and searches for interrelations among old and already-released films with the help of neural networks. The patterns found are used to evaluate new film projects. The forecast method doesn’t simply equate the new film with a similar film; rather, it appraises the film with reference to complex patterns which can turn up in very different films.

The basis of the GOLDMEDIA film forecasting model is a comprehensive and regularly-updated database with information on more than 1,000 films from the past ten years that attracted German investment. The same information is stored for all films, including viewer count, revenue numbers, opening date, genre, budget, film length, grant funds, rating, language, distribution company, and many other factors.

 “Explanatory models and forecast tools that rely on a single cause – too frequently the script – can’t adequately reflect reality,” says Dr. Florian Kerkau, the managing director of GOLDMEDIA Custom Research and director of the research project. “The film budget, distribution company, and director are undeniably important, but not the only decisive factor for success with the audience. They are among a total of 60 factors that we have identified as important, standing in a highly complex network of relations. The well-known “gut feeling test” is too heavily relied upon. There is, for example, no particularly strong correlation between production budget and later revenue, something many film studios must learn through bitter experience.”

GOLDMEDIA has been contracted by a number of production companies to test diverse German films (notarially certified). The success rate of the GOLDMEDIA film forecasting model currently stands at about 80 percent, meaning that it allows an accurate forecast of viewer numbers in four out of five cases.

The GOLMEDIA method includes several different analytical steps. First, all relevant information on the planned film project is compiled in a standardised questionnaire, which remains strictly confidential.

Next, the forecast places the expected number of viewers within a particular size category. The research tool also provides an analysis for possible improvements: Relatively small changes, like postponement of the opening date or an increase in the number of copies can often significantly effect a film’s chances of success. Unfortunately, more copies or higher marketing budgets do not automatically bring more viewers. An additional analytical step can forecast the success of the films in terms of further stages of the value-added chain, such as DVD sales, TV analyses, and so on.

In the USA, film forecasting is already the established method for informing investment decisions. Such methods will also soon be standard to the production process in Europe and Germany. New techniques allow a closer alignment with audience preferences and earlier evaluations of a project’s risks.

"It's not about replacing experienced filmmakers’ industry knowledge," says Dr. Klaus Goldhammer, managing director of GOLDMEDIA. "But we are convinced that such risk-minimising research instruments are also applicable in creative branches like the film industry and can significantly improve the chances of German films. Film forecasting is interesting for those looking to limit risk of flop in this way. Production companies and distributors also benefit from the media research data. An objectively calculated market-success forecast is an excellent
argument when negotiating with investors. Finance professionals are more likely to be convinced by analyses than a description of the project’s content, however passionately it is presented." END


Press contacts:
Dr. Katrin Penzel, Tel: +49-30-246 266-0, Katrin.Penzel@Goldmedia.de
Dr. Florian Kerkau, Tel: +49-30-246 266-0, research@Goldmedia.de

GOLDMEDIA Custom Research GmbH
Goldmedia Custom Research GmbH, established in 2007, specialises in a wide range of research services including customized research, market and opinion research. The company offers all forms and methods of classic market research from telephone interviews to focus groups, from conjoint analysis to pricing analysis as well as new techniques in the field of usability research (pupillometrics, eyetracking). For more information in German. ]]> Startpage Press Release Tue, 23 Mar 2010 08:27:00 +0100 http://www.goldmedia.com/en/news/info/article/content-overload-will-increase-the-importance-of-electronic-programme-guides.html Almost three quarters of all TV households in Western Europe will have access to EPGs by 2014 London, Berlin 23rd February 2010: Thousands of TV programmes, catch-up TV video-on-demand archives, internet-TV services, video-sharing platforms and personal content currently compete for audiences.... Almost three quarters of all TV households in Western Europe will have access to EPGs by 2014 London, Berlin 23rd February 2010: Thousands of TV programmes, catch-up TV video-on-demand archives, internet-TV services, video-sharing platforms and personal content currently compete for audiences. With such a huge range of content, the electronic programme guide (EPG) is being promoted to the increasingly important role of an entertainment guide for content-overloaded digital living rooms. That’s according to the report ‘EPGs and TV Middleware Applications: Market Assessment and Forecasts to 2014’. The report, a collaboration between media analysts Screen Digest (www.screendigest.com) and consulting firm Goldmedia (www.goldmedia.com), is supported by Presse-Programm-Service GmbH - pps (www.pps.de), one of the leading European providers of programme information. 59 million households in Western Europe were equipped with EPGs at the end of 2008, a penetration of 36 percent of all TV households. This number will grow 19 percent yearly between 2008 and 2014 so that nearly three quarters of all TV households will have access to EPGs in 2014. The report has identified about 300 EPGs on the different platforms in Western Europe. These include EPGs in set-top boxes from pay-TV and infrastructure providers, online EPGs from TV guide magazines, TV platform providers, online providers and mobile EPGs.
Market volumes from direct revenues in Western Europe will triple by 2014 In 2008 the EPG market volumes from direct revenues in Western Europe amounted to about €156m. According to Goldmedia and Screen Digest forecasts, these revenues will nearly triple by 2014 to €451m. Direct EPG revenues primarily come from B2B transactions: from technical development, implementation of EPGs in end devices, licenses, software and programme updates.  In addition the EPG is rapidly gaining significance as a transaction, advertisement and communication platform. As the gateway to viewers, the EPG is becoming both an interactive advertising medium and a sales portal for pay-TV and other content providers. The UK is currently the most developed EPG market The progress of development differs by country and corresponds closely to the digitization process of the TV infrastructure. The spread of pay-TV and IPTV, the degree of innovation among cable network operators and the proliferation of end devices with specific EPGs are essential factors in development. The UK has been the most developed and innovative EPG market in Western Europe to date. 70 percent of UK TV households already have EPGs. The Sky Guide from British pay-TV market leader BSkyB is the most widespread EPG in Western Europe, with over nine million users. Cable network operator Virgin Media also offers customers access to the BBC iPlayer via its EPG in a hybrid set-top box. The Scandinavian market has a large number of high grade and innovative EPGs. In France, Europe’s leader for IPTV distribution, EPGs are well represented on the platform. EPG penetration in Italy is relatively high at 38 percent where the market benefits primarily from government subsidies for DTT boxes and the promotion of the interactive standard MHP. Germany lags behind many other countries in Europe, primarily because of the relatively low penetration of digital and pay-TV.
 
Global players are striving for a central role in home entertainment A large number of players operate in the EPG market, covering various areas of the value chain: content providers; TV platform operators; middleware, application and end-device vendors. A variety of companies are responsible for the development, implementation, and maintenance of EPGs, including technical service and programme data providers. “The traditional market for EPGs is in broadcast TV and it is likely to remain that way, but we are finding increased interest from non-traditional vendors including some of the largest consumer electronics and media companies. The lines are starting to blur and where content is sourced outside of pay-TV operators new entrants such as Apple, Sony, and Microsoft have an opportunity to provide branding and control into the living rooms. As hybrid services, home networking and multiple content sources become more mainstream, the EPG will be central in gaining control of our entertainment choices.” said Tom Morrod, Senior Analyst, Screen Digest.
 
EPGs evolution: from a digital programme magazine to an entertainment guide “The EPG is becoming much more than a digital programme guide: it is evolving into an interactive, personalized and integrated entertainment guide.” concludes Mathias Birkel, senior consultant at Goldmedia and author of the report. “Whether on the television, the internet or mobile, the EPG of the future locates content that is of interest for the specific user. Not only will it offer automatic recommendations - either personal TV channels or personalized programme tips – but it will also include suggestions from friends, and from customers with similar interests from sites like Facebook.”
  
Ends For more information please contact: Lucy Green Tel: +44 (0) 7817 698366 lgreen@greenfieldscommunications.com
Screen Digest: Fay Hamilton, PR and Promotions Manager
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7424 2847 fay.hamilton@screendigest.com
Goldmedia: Dr. Katrin Penzel, Communications Director
Tel: +49 (0) 30 246 266-0, Katrin.Penzel@Goldmedia.de
PPS Presse-Programm-Service GmbH: Michael Medelin, Manager Marketing & Sales Tel: +49(0)30 254222-7789, michael.medelin@pps.de  About this research: The research in this release is taken from the Goldmedia and Screen Digest report ‘EPGs and TV Middleware Applications: Market Assessment and Forecasts to 2014’. Published in February 2010 and produced in collaboration by the two companies, the report comprehensively analyses the market and competitive situation for EPGs in Western Europe. A special focus is the changing role of the EPG: from the electronic equivalent of a programme guide magazine to an interactive, personalized and integrated entertainment guide. The most influential factors for current and future development are analyzed and assessed, including EPG revenue and user potential to 2014. About Screen Digest: Screen Digest is the pre-eminent firm of industry analysts covering global media markets. Headquartered in London, with offices in New York and Carmel, California, we employ a team of 40 specialist analysts covering film, television, broadband, mobile, cinema, home entertainment and gaming. Our online services and reports provide the information and analysis that hundreds of media companies worldwide base their decisions on. Most recently we have launched Global Media Intelligence (GMI), a new service which provides research and analysis specifically for media-focused institutional investors. www.screendigest.com About Goldmedia: Since 1998 Goldmedia has provided national and international clients with high quality consulting and research services in the fields of media, entertainment and telecommunications. Goldmedia offers: in-depth analysis of markets and competitors; forecasts and strategic consulting services; the implementation of new business models; and consulting for restructuring whole companies, including M&A processes in the field of corporate finance. Goldmedia-Group: Goldmedia GmbH Media Consulting & Research, Goldmedia Sales & Services GmbH and Goldmedia Custom Research GmbH, Goldmedia Political & Staff Advising GmbH. The company's head office is in Berlin, Germany. Goldmedia is a member of the international network European Media Consulting Association (EMCA). www.emca.tv   www.goldmedia.com About pps Presse-Programm-Service GmbH (pps): PPS is one of Europe's leading publishing service providers of tv metadata. For 20 years, the pps brand has been known for its premium editorial content, pioneering technological solutions and the highest production reliability.  pps is a subsidiary of Deutsche Presse-Agentur GmbH, one of the world’s largest and best known news agencies. Further information can be found at www.pps.de (http://www.pps.de).]]> Press Release Startpage Tue, 23 Feb 2010 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.goldmedia.com/en/news/info/article/goldmedia-political-staff-advising-gmbh-newly-established.html New Consulting in media politics GOLDMEDIA and Clemens Appel have created a new consulting company for media politics and personnel development Clemens Appel, the former director of the Brandenburg State Chancellery, will serve as the managing director and as a GOLDMEDIA partner Berlin,... New Consulting in media politics

• GOLDMEDIA and Clemens Appel have created a new consulting company for media politics and personnel development 
• Clemens Appel, the former director of the Brandenburg State Chancellery, will serve as the managing director and as a GOLDMEDIA partner

Berlin, February 23, 2010. The GOLDMEDIA Group expanded on February 1, 2010 through the founding of a new company, GOLDMEDIA Political & Staff Advising (http://www.goldmedia.com). Clemens Appel, the former director of the Brandenburg State Chancellery, is to serve as the managing director and as a GOLDMEDIA Group partner. The new company is located in Berlin.  GOLDMEDIA Political & Staff Advising GmbH offers consulting services in the fields of media politics, communications, and personnel development. The addition of the new company will allow GOLDMEDIA to offer consulting expertise for all questions regarding media politics even more efficiently. As law graduate, Clemens Appel has held a variety of leadership positions in Brandenburg’s state government, including as State Secretary for the Ministry for Employment, Social Welfare, Health, and Women and as State Secretary for the Ministry for Urban Development, Housing, and Transportation. From 2004 to 2009, Appel was the director of the Brandenburg State Chancellery. As director, Appel oversaw matters involving broadcasting politics and played an important role in the planning and negotiation of the German Federal Film Fund. “I’m pleased that I’m able to bring many years’ experience working in media politics to my consulting work”, says Clemens Appel, explaining his decision to join the GOLDMEDIA Group. “Various projects over the years have acquainted me with GOLDMEDIA, leading me to choose the partnership.” “We are very pleased to welcome Clemens Appel, a leading expert in matters relating to media politics, as a GOLDMEDIA partner”,  says Goldmedia Group’s managing director, Dr. Klaus Goldhammer. “His expertise and contacts will certainly provide an impetus for our consulting group’s further development.” In addition to the newly-founded GOLDMEDIA Political & Staff Advising GmbH, the consulting group includes GOLDMEDIA GmbH Media Consulting & Research, GOLDMEDIA Sales & Services GmbH, and GOLDMEDIA Custom Research GmbH. GOLDMEDIA companies advise national and international customers, specialising in the fields of media, entertainment, and telecommunications. GOLDMEDIA cooperates closely with international partners like Screen Digest in Great Britain and is a founding member of the consulting network European Media Consulting Association (EMCA). In addition to the Berlin headquarters, GOLDMEDIA is also represented in Hamburg, Frankfurt, Munich, and Düsseldorf. END Press contact
GOLDMEDIA Group: Dr. Katrin Penzel, Tel: +49-30-246 266-0
Oranienburger Str. 27|10117 Berlin-Mitte|Germany
Tel. +49-(0)30-246 266-0|Fax: +49-(0)30-246 266-66|www.Goldmedia.com Katrin.Penzel@Goldmedia.de
Further information can be found here: www.Goldmedia.com GOLDMEDIA Group:  http://www.goldmedia.com
GOLDMEDIA Political & Staff Advising GmbH
GOLDMEDIA GmbH Media Consulting & Research
GOLDMEDIA Sales & Services GmbH
GOLDMEDIA Custom Research GmbH GOLDMEDIA Political & Staff Advising GmbH
GOLDMEDIA Political & Staff Advising GmbH was founded at the beginning of 2010. The company specialises in consulting services in the areas of media politics and telecommunications. Consulting solutions for all matters concerning personnel politics and development are also offered. The company is headquartered in Berlin.  ]]> Press Release Startpage Tue, 23 Feb 2010 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.goldmedia.com/en/news/info/article/media-trends-2010-goldmedia-analyses.html Berlin, January 12th 2010. The economic and advertisement crises left a deep impact on media and telecommunications markets in 2009, driving the search for new and lucrative business models forward. Which changes and challenges will arise in 2010? The experts at Goldmedia have compiled brief... media and telecommunications markets in 2009, driving the search for new and lucrative business models forward. Which changes and challenges will arise in 2010? The experts at Goldmedia have compiled brief analyses on trends in television, internet, mobile communications, publishing, and media research. (http://www.goldmedia.com)

• HDTV will gain appeal for the mass market, propelling the TV digitisation process forward
• Content overload will make navigation systems more important –  and the market ripe for EPGs
• Will scripted reality shows be the big hits for TV 2010?
• “Freemium” everywhere – a change of direction for marketing of digital content?!
• Social media will become a standard part of media planning
• Pocket newspapers? eReader becomes a must for publishers
• Hope for mobile market: mobile data services will help compensate for sales declines
• Market and media research: changes in consumer behaviour demand new analysis systems

TV 2010
HDTV will gain appeal for the mass market, propelling the digitisation process forward In 2010, HDTV will make significant gains in the mass market. High-definition TVs are already almost everywhere – there were about 19 million HD-capable devices in German households by the end of 2009. But HD content isn’t yet simple to access: it is available primarily on Blu-rays (which are increasingly turning into take-home items), as an add-on package with Sky (very expensive, since it’s not sold singly), and via IPTV (but far from offered by all IPTV providers). This situation will have to change in 2010. After several start-up attempts, including the HD trial during the 2009 IAAF World Championships, the Olympic Winter Games 2010 are set to mark the launch of regular HDTV service from ARD and ZDF, making it the new standard for television. The service not only brings better picture quality to more viewers, but will also serve as an impulse for digitisation, especially in cable, which remains predominantly analogue. The first signs are present: starting in December 2009, Kabel BW has given all new digital customers HD receivers as standard. Adopting RTL and ProSiebenSat.1’s encryption strategies, HDTV has been sold to viewers on the HD+ satellite platform as a premium service since the end of 2009. In the process, HDTV could give pay TV a badly-needed push. If not HDTV, what else will generate willingness to pay among German customers beyond for the Bundesliga, Germany’s national soccer league? New opportunities will be capitalised on in 2010, and HDTV will be marketed with the aim of quickly and effectively making HD digital TV available to a large audience. The industry should not repeat the mistake of the music and film industries with user-unfriendly restrictions to recording and time shifting. In 2010, Germany could finally free itself of its label as one of Europe’s straggling television markets. (Mathias Birkel, Consultant Goldmedia GmbH Media Consulting & Research) Content overload will make navigation systems more important – and the market ripe for EPGs

Just like Google made the internet searchable and, consequently, usable, intelligent search engines are needed to guide future users through the jungle of audiovisual media. In a TV landscape with more than 2,500 channels and over 50 video-on-demand services, German TV viewers can no longer look through everything offered. Adding to the selection are catch-up TV services as well as shows and films that can be viewed after broadcast through time shifting. The selection will only increase in 2010. In addition to online catch-up- offers, catch-up content on the television will also grow in popularity. IPTV provider Alice offers its customers ARD’s daily show on demand. Catch-up TV will also become available on other TV platforms. Kabel Deutschland and Kabel BW have announced the launches of their video-on-demand services for 2010. On top of that, hybrid TV allows viewers to watch online content like internet TV, footage from video platforms like YouTube, and films saved on the home computer on the television. A lucrative market will arise for electronic programme guides (EPGs), which have been given little attention to date. The EPG is now more than a digital programme guide and is on its way to becoming an all-inclusive entertainment guide. Whether on the television, in the internet, or with a cell phone, the EPG of the future locates content from both TV and internet that is of interest for users and offers an automatic recommendation system in the form of personal TV channels or personalised programme tips. Programme recommendations from friends or users with similar interests on sites like Twitter and Facebook will also be displayed in the EPG of the future. The EPG is gaining importance and potential among market players as a transaction and advertisement platform. In Germany, it has mainly been the IPTV providers offering comprehensive EPGs, which are capable of more than just a display of TV programmes. New EPGs are expected for 2010, especially in the cable segment. The introduction of HD+ on satellite has created a stimulus for further EPG development. At the end of 2008, only 13 percent of German TV households were equipped with EPGs. Goldmedia forecasts that this value will rise to 59 percent by 2014. There are currently over 30 online EPGs in Germany. This number confirms that a strong need for navigation support is already present. Now it is up to market players to bring entertainment guides to the television as well. (Marcel Piopiunik, Consultant Goldmedia GmbH Media Consulting & Research) Will scripted reality shows be the big hits for TV 2010?

Major TV programme innovations are not expected for 2010 in Germany. The ad crisis isn’t over yet, sharply curbing willingness to take risks. Also, viewers are looking for familiarity. This makes it difficult for new types of programmes to win over the public. This was Sat. 1’s particularly painful experience in 2009. The current success of the RTL afternoon programme will influence 2010’s television programmes. The station is drawing in phenomenal ratings with its scripted reality television shows. In these fake reality shows, everything is even more dramatic than in the life-help entertainment formats (like Super Nanny) of recent years: the protagonists are even more indebted, even more naive, and in even worse circumstances. The mechanism of “social downward comparison” explains the success of these programmes. Viewers feel good while watching the shows because they see that others are doing much worse than they. But what’s good for the afternoon ratings could have a negative influence on primetime. The families that are helped by Supper Nanny and debt counsellor Peter Zwegat are suddenly not in bad enough shape. The shows could lose market share. How does the competition react? ProSieben will certainly try to profit from the scripted reality trend in 2010, testing out new, scripted shows in their afternoon programme. Sat.1 is refining the station’s brand and seems disinterested in following the trend further for the time being. Its legal TV series, Lenßen & Partner, was just suspended. It’s much more likely that Sat 1. will try out a genre that is the object of renewed discussion among programme makers: the good old game show. (Christoph Schwab, Consultant Goldmedia Custom Research GmbH)


Internet 2010
“Freemium” everywhere – a change of direction for marketing of digital content?! All content that can be made digital is available for free sooner or later. Chris Anderson focused on this business model “Freemium” in his book, “Free: Future of a Radical Price.” The paradigm for digital content of every kind has long been: “Offer the user a free basic product and hope that he or she will pay for additional premium services.” Along these lines, many media providers’ lack of success in searching for a true online business model will soon lead them to rethink the situation. Why should users pay for something that they can get for free with a few extra clicks? In 2010, there should be a change of direction for the marketing of digital content – otherwise, the industry runs the risk of entrenching piracy among users as a matter of course. It might even be possible to make money from piracy, e.g., through a fee-based service that allows easy access to (illegal) digital content, at the same time legalising the access. Even if users’ willingness to pay for the content itself continues to decrease, they may still be willing to pay for user friendliness and convenience. The freemium principle is also increasingly setting precedent outside the online world. A French telecommunications provider, appropriately named “Free”, has successively increased its offerings for years now (at a constant charge of 29.99 euros). Started as an exclusively-online provider, Free integrated larger download bandwidths, voice over IP, and IPTV and, in doing so, steadily expanded the number of programmes included. One German company centered around this model is HanseNet, which charges no basic fee for TV via DSL. The TV connection is made a giveaway, serving as the basis for marketing premium content (pay TV or VOD). This signals that a growing number of providers from very different branches will try to get customers on board with free services, increasing their likelihood to sign up for premium services later. (Mathias Birkel, Consultant Goldmedia GmbH Media Consulting & Research) Social media will become a standard part of media planning Social media will become a standard part of media planningThe difficult economic situation is reflected in budget planning within the advertisement industry. But monetary bottlenecks aren’t by any means the only problem. Many hard-to-miss uncertainties about ad concepts also pose difficulties. The real challenge for 2010 lies in rethinking and restructuring media strategies and a more focused search for new target groups. The need to expand reach within the select core and additional target groups compels decision makers to select platforms and media more systematically, finding those in which the target groups are actually active. Planning criteria like Sinus Milieus are increasingly in the background and are enhanced or replaced by “soft factors”, such as content affinity. The escalating user levels in social media are transforming social media from a nice addition to an established part of media planning. Dialogue with media users and interaction with target groups are becoming more important to anyone who must deal with media planning. The still-conservative trend of investing a small percentage of the TV budget in social media marketing will (by necessity) continue to develop in 2010. Social media marketing, or better social media interaction, is much more than the integration of Facebook and Twitter. It is the strategic, all-inclusive planning of blogs, forums, communities, and social networks. There are already more than 2,500 relevant platforms in the German market alone, and the number is rising. The social media interface falls right between above and below-the-line advertising, and planning must be just as structured, concrete, and precise as planning for traditional media. The sharpest attention should be given to strategic brand management. The internet doesn’t forget, meaning badly-placed or misleading advertisements can hurt a brand for years. (Simon Boé, Geschäftsführer Goldmedia Sales & Services GmbH)  Print media 2010 Pocket newspapers? eReader becomes a must for publishers The eReaders presents publishers with a chance to use digitisation to gain new readers and establish payment and subscription models, saving substantial costs. Following the remarkable success of the Apple iPhone and the Amazon Kindle, electronic reading devices (eReaders) are becoming an attractive way for the consumer press to deliver their content to readers at a charge. German press like the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Handelsblatt, and Wirtschaftswoche are already available at the Kindle Store. Spiegel and Stern have announced that their magazines will be offered on the iPhone starting in 2010. And Axel Springer AG has offered an iPhone app at a charge since December 2009. Internationally, publishers are also scrambling to develop digital distribution concepts. In Switzerland, Swisscom has launched a pilot project in cooperation with the major publishing houses, offering an own eReader. Numerous US publishers want to create a digital kiosk for mobile reading devices. Publishers’ hopes aren’t without a basis. Newspapers on the eReader could dispense with the former printing and distribution expenses. This could lead to cost savings of up to 40 percent. Personalised news services and new revenue models can also be implemented on the eReader. This is a trend that newspaper publishers can’t afford to pass up in 2010. (Dr. Klaus Goldhammer, Geschäftsführer Goldmedia GmbH Media Consulting & Research)

Mobile communications 2010 Hope for mobile market: mobile data services will help compensate for sales declines Until 2005, mobile communications was a booming industry. Each year brought new customers and sales gains in the billions. But it has been downhill since. By 2009, mobile communications could decline by more than 16 percent compared to 2005 and lose 4.5 billion euros in sales, according to current estimates by VATM (Association of Telecommunications and Value-Added Service Providers in Germany). The cause is quite clear: with increasing market saturation, the crowding effect increases competition, decreasing prices further and further. Goldmedia calculates that ARPU (Average Revenue per User) has fallen from 30 euros in 2002 to barely more than 15 euros at the end of 2009. Data services offer a chance for compensation: not including SMS/MMS, they made up 14 percent of total sales in 2009 – with the trend growing. But they won’t completely compensate mobile network operator for sales declines in 2010 either. Mobile providers’ data gateways are still only the basic infrastructure for advanced applications that build upon them. As this infrastructure increasingly spreads, the full potential of mobile applications will open up. Network effects will work through the increasing use of mobile internet. These effects will become more evident in 2010. So-called “apps” for the iPhone are already revealing the possibilities and direction of mobile services. From the July 2008 launch of Apple’s App Store to September 2009, more than two billion apps had already been downloaded. An estimate from August 2009 calculated that the App Store generates sales of about 200 million US dollars per month. In Germany, Axel Springer Verlag has just begun selling apps in the market. Growth in the mobile communications market will primarily be seen in the area of mobile applications themselves. New innovations in end devices, like the Apple touch netbook, which is a subject of hot discussion in forums and news articles, could give these apps and related sales a push forward. (Dr. Michael Schmid, Senior Consultant Goldmedia GmbH Media Consulting & Research)


Market and media research 2010 Market and media research: changes in consumer behaviour demand new analysis systems The intense struggle for users’ attention will continue in 2010.  It will become more and more difficult for companies and brands to reach the center of consumers’ focus, because just being found in an increasingly divergent media world has become a problem. As the number of marketing channels climbs exponentially, the importance of each individual channel sinks further. Changes in media use confront research with new challenges. Although an ad on a major TV channel used to reach the bulk of the target group, the marketing budget must now be spread among many channels. Consumers are not only eluding classic advertisement, but also taking away the basis of classic ad booking and accounting systems. Media researchers must develop current tools and systems to register, explain, and forecast more varied consumer behavior. The focus of the investigation cannot be the simple payout in terms of media contacts, but rather an intensive search for answers: Where do I find my target group(s)? How do I get positive publicity and how can it be measured? Substantiated measurements for success forecasts are becoming especially important. New methods of analysis, like data mining in combination with measurements and artificial intelligence methods, can contribute substantially to planning security and risk minimisation for all parties. Cost savings will remain key for 2010 marketing budgets – efficiency will come first. And this is exactly where the potential for change in media use lies, potential which must now be made usable. Adequate market and media research can contribute to this goal. (Dr. Florian Kerkau, Managing Director Goldmedia Custom Research GmbH) ]]> Press Release General Startpage info@Goldmedia.de Tue, 12 Jan 2010 08:33:00 +0100 http://www.goldmedia.com/en/news/info/article/report-economic-situation-of-german-broadcast.html The reach of the recession has also extended to the German broadcasting industry. By the fourth quarter of 2008, the impact of the troubled economy on the industry’s figures was unmistakable. Further declines can be expected for 2009. Free-TV providers anticipate revenue loss of eleven percent, and... German broadcasting industry. By the fourth quarter of 2008, the impact of the troubled economy on the industry’s figures was unmistakable. Further declines can be expected for 2009. Free-TV providers anticipate revenue loss of eleven percent, and pay-TV providers one percent. Private radio providers expect revenue loss of nine percent compared to the previous year. In contrast, teleshopping channels’ revenues are on the rise, with a six percent increase. These results are reported in “The economic situation of German broadcast”, a study commissioned by eight state media regulatory authorities, led by the Bavarian Regulatory Authority for Commercial Broadcasting (BLM). A complete survey of all private broadcasters in Germany measured a 2.2 percent increase in costs and a seven percent decline in ad revenue in 2008. The losses were tempered by gains from other revenue sources, so that total revenue in private broadcast in 2008 only sunk 3.3 percent, to 8.02 billion. Private broadcasters generated profits of 713 million euros in 2008, falling 38 percent from 2006. Private television experienced most of the profit decline, with private radio’s profits remaining stable. The results of the study were presented in Düsseldorf on November 30th, 2009 in a workshop entitled “Who can still pay?”. The event was hosted by the Regulatory Affairs Commission (ZAK) and the Bavarian Regulatory Authority for Commercial Broadcasting (BLM). Goldmedia was commissioned as a contributor to the study to gather data for and produce the television report. The study was commissioned by the state media regulatory agencies of Bavaria (BLM), Baden Württemberg (LfK), Berlin-Brandenburg (mabb), Hessen (LPR), Hamburg/Schleswig-Holstein (MA HSH), North Rhine-Westphalia (LFM), Rheinland-Pfalz, and Saxony (SLM).


Summary of key findings:

• Free TV decreased its share of classic advertisement in favor of alternative revenue sources, such digital pay-TV channels, teleshopping, online games, and licence trade. Free-TV providers generated more than 900 million euros through alternative revenue sources in 2008, a share of 20 per cent.
  
  
• Online revenue remains marginal, accounting for 3.3 percent of total revenue, or 252 million euros, for private TV broadcasters in 2008; 0.7 percent or 4.6 million euros for German radio broadcasters; and 0.6 percent or 0.5 million euros for regional TV providers. The radio industry estimates that the share of online revenue will rise to 6.5 percent in the next five years; TV providers anticipate a share of just under nine percent in 2013 (local TV: six percent).
  
  
• The majority of private TV providers in Germany, especially in pay TV, expect the end of the economic crisis by 2011 (46 percent). A fifth expect the end by 2010, and another fifth by 2012. Just 15 percent believe recovery will come in 2013 or even later.
  
  
• Despite growth among private companies, overall employment in the broadcasting industry has shrunk slightly since 2005 (2005: 75,537 employees; 2008:74,914 employees).
  
  
• The position of publicly-regulated broadcasters has strengthened relative to private broadcasters as a result of the advertising crisis. ARD, ZDF, and Deutschlandradio had combined revenues of 8.6 billion, compared to 6.5 billion euros for private broadcasters (excluding Teleshopping).
  
  

An extensive overview of the findings is available in German at www.blm.de. Download. Speech and workshop presentation of Dr. Klaus Goldhammer (in German). The complete research report with a comprehensive look at the individual sectors within television and radio and detailed state-specific reports will be published at the end of 2009 under the title “Wirtschaftliche Lage des Rundfunks in Deutschland 2008/09” (“The economic situation of German broadcast 2008/2009”). ]]> Press Release Radio TV & Broadband info@Goldmedia.de Sun, 20 Dec 2009 11:30:00 +0100 http://www.goldmedia.com/en/news/info/article/study-epgs-in-europe-2014.html EPGs and TV Middleware Applications: Market Assessment and Forecasts to 2014For today’s consumer, gaining an overview of the huge spectrum of TV and web TV services is no simple task. If digitalisation of audiovisual content is to succeed, growth in programme variety, number of platforms, and forms... EPGs and TV Middleware Applications: Market Assessment and Forecasts to 2014

For today’s consumer, gaining an overview of the huge spectrum of TV and web TV services is no simple task. If digitalisation of audiovisual content is to succeed, growth in programme variety, number of platforms, and forms of broadcast must be countered with smarter navigation and simpler accessibility. Just as Google made internet content searchable and accessible, intelligent electronic programme guides (EPGs) allow users to find their way in a world of visual overload. Published in February 2010 and produced in collaboration by the two companies Goldmedia and Screen Digest, the report comprehensively analyses the market and competitive situation for EPGs in Western Europe. A special focus is the changing role of the EPG: from the electronic equivalent of a programme guide magazine to an interactive, personalized and integrated entertainment guide. The most influential factors for current and future development are analyzed and assessed, including EPG revenue and user potential to 2014. The study was produced with support from Presse-Programm-Service GmbH - pps, one of the leading European providers of programme information.  Contents of the study "EPGs and TV Middleware Applications: Market Assessment and Forecasts to 2014":

• Market overviews for the most important online and on-screen EPGs in Western Europe
• EPG case studies
• Market players and business models
• Legal and regulatory aspects
• EPG features and applications
• Aspects of user research
• Forecasts for EPG user levels up to 2014
• Forecasts for EPG revenue potential up to 2014
• Trends for the EPG of the future

The study contains chapters on each of the following countries/regions: Benelux, Germany, Great Britain, France, Italy, Austria, Switzerland, Scandinavia, and Spain. For more information please contact: Dr. Katrin Penzel]]> TV & Broadband Internet info@Goldmedia.de (Goldmedia GmbH) Fri, 16 Oct 2009 08:09:00 +0200