Film forecasting
Market potential analysis for films - film forecasting
Developed by Goldmedia, market potential analysis for films - film forecasting - allows qualified predictions about the number of viewers a film will attract in Germany. This analysis is relevant at all stages along the evaluation process. This is because few films will ever be profitable once they’ve flopped at the theatre. In particular, film financiers and producers want to know the number of viewers and sales potential in advance.
Film forecasting: test for success before production begins
Extract from the press release
Berlin, March 23, 2010. At the beginning it’s just the script. For it to become a film, investors must be brought onboard. But the idea alone does not provide security for a multi-million-euro film investment.
Scientific methods are increasingly used in the film industry to get reliable forecasts on viewer numbers even before production begins. Film-forecasting analyses can help to reduce risk for all parties and provide sound support for investment decisions. Berlin consulting company GOLDMEDIA has developed a film forecasting model specifically for the German movie market, which has been used to test various film projects for over three years. [more]
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Key Findings
- Film forecasting reduces risk and informs investment decisions
- GOLDMEDIA’s film forecasting model calculates viewer numbers for German films before production begins
- GOLDMEDIA film forecasting is based on a comprehensive database and uses artificial intelligence methods
- Tests have a forecast accuracy of 80 percent
GOLDMEDIA film forecasting: research team
- Dr. Florian Kerkau
- Dr. Klaus Goldhammer
- Christoph Schwab
Market potential analysis – success prognoses for TV formats
Almost every new TV format that enters the market is subject to audience testing. Nonetheless, programmes with good test results frequently flop. This is because merely pleasing the target group is not enough – a programme must also be optimally placed, advertised, and well suited to the broadcaster’s brand concept. Goldmedia’s market potential analysis for TV offers a data mining tool that takes into consideration the results of audience tests and similar factors. The results are accurate predictions of future market shares and scopes of new or already-established programmes. The market potential analysis for TV also delivers valuable data on the optimal approach to compilation, programme planning, and promotion.
